Sudan’s War: Internal Fractures and Regional Fallout

The ongoing war in Sudan, now in its third year, has evolved into one of the world’s most severe humanitarian and geopolitical crises. The conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has not only devastated Sudan’s social and economic fabric but has also sent destabilizing ripple effects across the Horn of Africa. Over 8 million people have been displaced, famine conditions are emerging, and regional security architectures are under strain due to arms smuggling, cross-border militia activity, and the involvement of external actors. The conflict has become a proxy battleground for regional and global powers, each pursuing competing interests. This external meddling has intensified the conflict while exporting instability to neighboring states. The war’s destabilizing effects are most acute in Sudan’s immediate neighbors. Moreover, the war has triggered one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises, with over 25 million Sudanese facing acute food insecurity. Neighboring countries, many of which rely on Sudanese agriculture, are now contending with rising food prices and disrupted imports. The refugee crisis further strains regional stability. Over 1.5 million Sudanese have fled to Chad, Egypt, Ethiopia, and South Sudan, overwhelming already fragile infrastructure and fueling social tensions. Human trafficking and arms smuggling networks have proliferated, creating new security challenges

Emphasis was placed on the strategic role of external actors, in sustaining the conflict during the meeting. The destabilizing impact of these interventions, including the reported use of drones and the recruitment of foreign mercenaries, was viewed as a growing threat to regional peace and a violation of international norms. Discussions also focused on the limitations of regional and continental institutions to offer coordinated, timely, and effective mediation. The urgent need for coherent, African-led mediation processes that respect the principles of subsidiarity and inclusivity was emphasized, along with calls for stronger political will from neighboring states to prevent escalation. The meeting also examined the diplomatic failures that have hindered progress toward peace. The urgent need for an inclusive political dialogue was also central to the discussions. Beyond the immediate crisis, the conversation also explored the outlines of a post-conflict political vision, underscoring the need for a coordinated international response that supports Sudanese ownership of a political peace process, the reintegration of displaced populations, and a long-term governance model rooted in justice, equity, and regional cooperation.