IPSS-FES Breakfast meeting on “War on Iran: Repercussions on the Horn of Africa

Conversations noted as a result of the war, the world has witnessed the expansion of geopolitical confrontation into global commercial and maritime systems and contemporary conflicts are no longer confined within national borders as their impacts are felt across entire regions. The Horn of Africa, a fragile region that has been plagued for decades by high levels of violence and instability within and across borders, and which in recent years has served as a launching pad for terrorism, piracy, human trafficking, and smuggling operations and which finds itself geographically close to the crisis has been exposed structurally to a various consequence. An amalgamation of risks finds itself seated at the heart of this situation i.e., enhanced geopolitical competition, economic disruption, climate vulnerability, governance pressures, and existing local fragilities. 

The increasing attacks on commercial shipping, the rerouting of vessels, rising insurance costs, and growing militarization of strategic waterways have disrupted supply chains and increasing economic pressure across the region. For countries already managing fragility, climate shocks, and economic constraints, these pressures can quickly translate into five interconnected channels: fuel shocks, inflation shocks, fiscal shocks, forex pressure, and trade disruption - with each amplifying the other to create a compounding spiral and significant impact  primarily felt on energy and logistics networks. Furthermore, speakers noted the duration of a conflict is as important and impactful as the conflict itself by creating a cycle of inflation, asset depreciation and fiscal pressure that progressively erodes national economic resilience over time.

Since the outbreak of hostilities in February 2026, oil prices have surged from $60 to $90 per barrel, driving up costs for transport, electricity, and agriculture across all Horn economies. Furthermore, the rerouting of shipping around the Cape of Good Hope has added significant delays and costs, severely eroding the competitiveness of regional exporters. 

When economies are strained, institutions are under pressure, and opportunities are limited, the risk of instability increases significantly. Global crises are also increasingly reshaping political and security dynamics within Africa itself. Competition for influence over ports, strategic corridors, maritime routes, and security partnerships have intensified during the war. Countries already navigating complex political transitions and fragile governance contexts found themselves managing additional pressure. Speakers warned against the normalization of foreign influence in the region, noting that the proliferation of external actors poses a severe threat to local state authority and elevates the critical question of sovereignty. It was further noted that when state mechanisms weaken, including economic strain, this allows room for security and terrorism concerns due to potential military spillovers (e.g. Houthi/Iranian ballistic missiles) and heightened sectarian (Sunni-Shia) tensions in Muslim-majority demographics driven by Islamist propaganda and narratives. This scenario is a clear case that peace, development, and security cannot be addressed in isolation.

The War on Iran also created a risk that global attention and financing may shift away from ongoing crises in Africa toward other geopolitical priorities. Humanitarian and development financing were already under strain globally, and prolonged instability in the Middle East risks placing further pressure on already stretched resources for countries in the Horn of Africa and beyond.

It was also mentioned that the crisis should serve as a strategic wake-up call to strengthen collective, responsible, and regionally owned security mechanisms capable of ensuring stability and order in their shared maritime domain. Participants noted that such dynamics driven by global forces and interconnected systems call for stronger regional and international cooperation as no country can address them single handed. Finally, in this context it was stated that to build up resilient systems to be better manage external shocks is key.  This includes investing in energy diversification, strengthening regional supply chains, deepening regional trade integration through frameworks such as the AfCFTA, and reducing excessive dependence on vulnerable external trade routes and supply systems.

With this discussion on the war in Iran’s impacts on the Horn, the FES-IPSS Breakfast Meeting reaffirmed its role as a vital forum for frank and inclusive dialogue on complex regional security challenges.